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Is the US economy really 'incredible'?

Today Programme

BBC Radio 4

Donald Trump

The US economy is the envy of the world - at least according to President Donald Trump.

At a rally in North Carolina on Wednesday evening, Mr Trump told supporters: “Leaders come in from other countries, prime ministers, presidents, kings, queens, dictators sometimes and they all start off by saying ‘Mr President, I’d like to congratulate you on the incredible economy that you’ve created'.’”

But is everything as rosy as the hyperbolic president claims?

"It's really an interesting environment that we're in," says Greg Davis, chief investment officer at Vanguard.

"The labour market still appears to be very strong in the US but the challenge that we're facing is that the inflation rate continues to be rather weak and is clearly a sign of concern for the Federal Reserve."

While Mr Davis does not think - as some others do - that the US is likely to enter recession in the next 12 months, he tells the BBC's Today programme: "The risk factors are starting to rise and we'll have to see how aggressive the Fed is in terms of cutting interest rates to try and prevent a recession from happening."

No deal Brexit 'will lead to UK recession'

Big Ben and Union Jack flag
Getty Images

The government's economic watchdog predicts that the UK could fall into recession next year if the country leaves the European Union without a deal.

The Times reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will say that the economy will contract in 2020 before recovering but that GDP will be 3% lower in the event of a disorderly Brexit.

The OBR will release its report at 09.30am - Business Live will bring you full coverage and reaction to the forecasts.

FCA boss on Woodford fund

Andrew Bailey

Andrew Bailey (pictured), the chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, has been speaking at the regulator's annual meeting. He touches on a number of areas, including the fund run by by high profile fund manager Neil Woodford which has been suspended.

"It is right that we now put the future of financial conduct regulation on the table.

"A significant part of this debate turns on the issue of outcomes versus rules. Rules are a crucial mechanism for delivering outcomes, but can also be interpreted so rigidly as to become a box-ticking exercise.

This is a lesson we want to see reflected in firm behaviour – any organisation that prioritises being within the rules over doing the right thing, will not stand up to scrutiny for long.

"We view incidents like the Woodford affair as an example of this – where firms are following the letter, but not the spirit, of the rules. It raises questions about the rules themselves".

House prices fall in London

Reuters economics reporter tweets